1. The Sunflower Babushka
On the day of the invasion, this video was a viral sensation:
The transcript of the alternate:
WOMAN: Who’re you?
SOLDIER: We’ve got workout routines right here. Please go this manner.
WOMAN: What sort of workout routines? Are you Russian?
SOLDIER: Sure.
WOMAN: So what the fuck are you doing right here?
SOLDIER: Proper now, our dialogue will result in nothing.
WOMAN: You’re occupants, you’re fascists! What the fuck are you doing on our land with these weapons? Take these seeds and put them in your pocket, so no less than sunflowers [Ukrainian national flower] will develop once you all lie down right here.
SOLDIER: Proper now, our dialogue will lead nowhere. Let’s not escalate this case, please.
WOMAN: What scenario? Guys, guys. Put the sunflower seeds in your pockets, please. You’ll lie down right here with the seeds. You got here to my land. Do you perceive? You’re occupiers. You’re enemies.
SOLDIER: Sure.
WOMAN: And from this second, you might be cursed. I’m telling you.
SOLDIER: Now hearken to me—
WOMAN: I’ve heard you.
SOLDIER: Let’s not escalate the scenario. Please go this manner.
WOMAN: How can or not it’s additional escalated? You fucking got here right here uninvited. Items of shit.
This city stays in occupied Kherson oblast, so we do not know what’s occurred to her. However the video communicated to different Ukrainians and to the world that they might not quietly undergo the Russian invaders. It was among the many earliest alerts that Russia would battle to subdue the lands it was invading, and that they, as this babushka declared, can be “cursed.”
Related: “Russan warship, go fuck your self”
2. Zelenskyy (possibly) tells People, ‘I want ammunition, not a experience’
Russians have been streaming over the border and social media was reporting an absence of Ukrainian resistance. Russian rockets and missiles have been putting all around the nation. This was mere weeks after the Afghan authorities fled Taliban advances, leaving the capital Kabul at first signal of hazard. It was not unreasonable to worry the identical may occur in Kyiv. But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy by no means wavered, projecting calm resolve in myriad movies to his individuals (and the worldwide neighborhood as properly).
Curiously, there is no such thing as a video of that well-known Zelenskyy quote, “I do not want a experience, I want ammunition.” It first exhibits up in an AP story, as quoted by a single American official.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was requested to evacuate Kyiv on the behest of the U.S. authorities however turned down the provide.
Zelenskyy mentioned in response: “The struggle is right here; I want ammunition, not a experience,” in response to a senior American intelligence official with direct information of the dialog, who described Zelenskyy as upbeat.
I’ve written up to now concerning the energy of delusion, and this quote has actually outlined Zelenskyy’s warfare narrative. But for all we all know, it was invented by the “senior American intelligence official” as a part of the knowledge warfare. Isn’t that a part of the CIA’s portfolio? That official doesn’t even declare to have been current on the dialog, simply had “direct information” of it. So possibly that particular person learn a transcript, or was advised about it in a sport of phone. The Biden administration denied it ever offered Zelenskyy a ride out.
Nonetheless, the quote was a sensation, spreading rapidly on social media, and the Ukrainian authorities rapidly ran with it. How may it not? It birthed the Legend of Zelenskyy. Whether or not he really mentioned it or not (and I imagine he did, as a result of it sounds like him), it gave Ukrainians an inspiring, unflappable, and defiant president to rally round. And for individuals like me, watching very carefully, it communicated that this wasn’t Afghanistan, and if Ukraine may resist the preliminary Russian shock-and-awe marketing campaign, arming its protection would not be a wasted effort as we noticed in Kabul.
3. Twitter and Telegram assist Ukraine win the knowledge warfare
For a rustic so expert within the info warfare that it helped Donald freakin’ Trump win the presidency, it was breathtaking seeing Ukraine run laps round Russian efforts to manage the “data house.” Check out what I believe is without doubt one of the most iconic movies of the warfare’s preliminary hours:
This was northwest of Kyiv, in a vital intersection. We see a number of destroyed Russian armored automobiles held off by Ukrainian armor and defenders carrying Western anti-tank weapons. The star of the video is a fearless Ukrainian soldier carrying his British NLAW anti-tank rocket and strutting towards the sound of gunfire.
Examine the date: Feb. 26. That is nonetheless inside the first 48 hours of the warfare, when individuals questioned whether or not 1) Ukraine had the desire to struggle, and a pair of) whether or not Ukraine may maintain off the Russian juggernaut. This video by itself answered each questions whereas additionally speaking to Ukraine’s allies the worth of their donated gear.
Inside the subsequent days and weeks, social media can be flooded with tons of of movies of burning Russian tanks and different armored automobiles. Not like the artillery battles that might later dominate, this was up shut and private, the purest type of battlefield valor. And Ukraine’s Western allies knew that their help mattered, it was making a distinction, and that it was price investing in extra weapons deliveries.
Russia had nothing to counter this within the info house. With uncommon exceptions, they nonetheless don’t.
4. Kherson is betrayed
Russia captured a single regional capital this complete warfare, and it did so with comparatively minimal resistance. It was actually odd within the first few days of the warfare, watching Russian and Ukrainian armor combating on the Antonovsky Bridge close to Kherson.
A drone view of that battle:
Ukraine’s failure to blow that bridge wasted the sacrifice of certainly one of its engineers, who gave his life with a view to blow the opposite bridge connecting southern Kherson oblast to Kherson metropolis.
So what occurred? Treachery and treason.
[D]efensive plans included each flooding the area, as was executed close to Kyiv, in addition to blowing the 2 main bridges over the Dneiper on the south facet of Kherson. “The Dnieper, the Antonovsky bridge, retains to the final, if something, it explodes, and Kherson appears to be out of hostilities,” Google interprets the previous governor as saying. “[T]right here isn’t any bridge, we’re simply guarding the water line. Fuck him who will cross, the Dnieper.” …
In keeping with Gordeev [that former governor of Kherson oblast], all of those defenses may’ve been deployed in a single day. None of them have been. As a substitute, the newspaper studies that “Incumbent Governor Gennady Laguta, in response to colleagues, on the primary day of the [special operation] put the keys on the mayor’s desk with the phrases: “I don’t take part on this” – and left the area.” Moreover, “Along with him – on the primary day of the particular operation – the management of the police, the prosecutor’s workplace, the courts left, and a little bit later SBU officers have been evacuated.” (SBU officers are Ukraine’s intelligence officers.)
Kherson formally fell March 3. Think about what the warfare may need seemed like if the Antonovsky bridge had been blown. Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih would’ve been spared a lot shelling and destruction. The agricultural steppe within the area wouldn’t be fertilized with hundreds of lifeless Russian and Ukrainian troopers. Ukraine would’ve been capable of focus its defenses in different approaches.
On the flip facet, Russia would have possible shelled Kherson out of spite, notably at a time when Ukraine lacked severe counter-battery capabilities or HIMARS to strike provide depots deep behind enemy traces. And naturally, Russia would have been capable of amass forces in different fronts. All these lifeless in Kherson oblast may be lifeless elsewhere. However nonetheless, one feels that on steadiness every thing would have been higher off with out that betrayal.
Nonetheless, it may have been worse, and that results in the following merchandise on this listing:
5. Russia failed to purchase off (most) Ukrainians
Putin was satisfied by his intelligence companies that the Russians have been so beloved that Ukrainians would give up, swap sides, and greet the Russian invaders with rose petals. We’ve all seen studies of Russian officers packing their costume uniforms as they crossed into Ukraine that first day. They thought they’d be parading in Kyiv later that week. However over the next months, we discovered simply how deep that Russian intelligence failure went.
On high of the billions in wealth switch between Russian and Ukraine, there was an irrational perception within the attractiveness of being Russian. Stories recommend that Putin was advised {that a} third to half of Ukrainian troops would defect to the Russian facet within the first days of the warfare, with Russian commentators admitting as much mid-March.
“The navy operation is, no query, more durable going than had been anticipated,” mentioned Sergey Markov, a pro-Kremlin commentator who seems regularly on state tv. “It was anticipated that 30 to 50 p.c of the Ukrainian Armed Forces would swap over to Russia’s facet. Nobody is switching over.”
Warfare felony and ultra-nationalist Russian critic Igor Girkin claims Russia prevented bombing Ukrainian barracks the primary three days of the warfare, treating them as pleasant forces earlier than realizing that mass defections weren’t occurring. He thought-about {that a} huge missed alternative to generate early huge casualties on Ukrainian troops. (Different studies say that Ukraine emptied these barracks given American warnings, and Russian missiles would have hit empty buildings regardless.)
It sucks that Russia succeeded in shopping for the give up of Kherson, however Ukraine’s capacity to withstand the remainder of these billions saved them an important deal extra disasters within the general image.
6. Ukraine launches first profitable counteroffensive at Voznesensk
Oh, this was a deal with. March 17: Russia was attempting to finish its “land bridge” connecting mainland Russia by way of Mariupol, Melitopol, Kherson, and Mykolaiv, all the way in which to Odesa, then connecting with its occupied Transnistria area in Moldova. Nevertheless, Russia was caught at Mykolaiv, properly protected behind the Southern Bug river (its bridges appropriately blown), so it stupidly determined to snake its approach north and across the Bug, bypassing Mykolaiv and attempting to get to Odesa the great distance.
Russia bought so far as the city of Voznesensk, the place that Russian vanguard bought spanked by native farmers and a few territorial protection forces, then thrown again all the way in which again to round Mykolaiv—a lightning counteroffensive that retook 75 miles of Russian territory and left tons of of Russians lifeless, their tools littered alongside the route.
From a navy standpoint, this victory had restricted impact. It will take one other seven months or so earlier than Kherson oblast north of the Dnipro river can be liberated. And that effort to snake across the Bug to get to Odesa by no means stood an opportunity in hell. However this was the primary time we noticed Ukraine on the counteroffensive, and it didn’t simply really feel good—it signaled to Russia that merely taking territory would now not be sufficient. Ukraine now had the flexibility and can to retake territory. It was additionally, not coincidentally, Russia’s high-water mark in all places besides the Donbas:
I’ve little question Russia’s failure within the Battle of Voznesensk led to Russia’s subsequent retrenchment and the abandonment of its efforts round Kyiv. Talking of which …
7. Ukraine wins the Battle of Kyiv
Within the subsequent histories of the Battle of Kyiv, we all know Ukrainian artillery performed a decisive function from the very starting. For all of the movies of NLAW and Javelin missile strikes on Russian armor, it was the very artillery that reigns supreme right this moment that held again the Russian hordes north of Kyiv, round Kharkiv, and just about in all places else.
The primary time I wrote about it in any actual sense was March 17, “for the primary time all warfare, we’re seeing Ukrainian artillery being put to make use of, and the outcomes are wonderful.” I used to be proper that it was the primary time we’d seen it, however it actually wasn’t the primary time it was put to make use of.
Struggling defeats down by Mykolaiv, stymied within the northwestern outskirts of Kyiv and round Chernihiv, and getting nowhere within the Donbas, Russia had sufficient and started retreating from Kyiv on March 29. On the time I puzzled about Russia’s true intentions, not fully satisfied they have been pulling out. I actually didn’t assume they’d name it quits at Chernihiv as properly. However in hindsight it is sensible: The entire level of Chernihiv was to push down that freeway and stress Kyiv from a number of sides. With out that goal it made little sense for Russia to maintain something within the space, and it totally retreated from Ukraine’s north all the way in which to Kharkiv with a view to reinforce different areas of advance. (On the time, that principally meant Izyum.)
It was the first of many Russian “goodwill gestures” to return.
8. Sinking of the Moskva
On April 13, nonetheless comparatively early within the warfare, we bought information that the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet had been hit by Ukrainian missiles.
There have been 12-24 hours of uncertainty as Russia claimed it was however a scratch, but the warship sunk being towed again to port.
For all of Russia’s bluster as “the world’s second military,” it had already been defeated on the Battle of Kyiv and was struggling to seek out its foothold anyplace else within the remaining energetic fronts. On high of these indignities, these damned Hohols (Russian derogatory slang for Ukrainians), these impetuous youngsters, had taken out the satisfaction of Russia’s navy. And so they didn’t even want NATO weapons to take action—it was sunk with Ukrainian gear and ingenuity.
Within the coming days, we’d uncover that a lot of the Moskva’s radar arrays have been nonfunctioning, that its defenses possible failed to interact, and that Russia had lied concerning the extent of the harm within the hours and days following the assault. It was one other instance, and the highest-profile one, of how Russia’s tradition of grift and corruption had possible value them dozens (if not tons of) of lives, in addition to severe fight capabilities. This wasn’t only a symbolic victory—the Moskva’s radar array (theoretically) peered deeply into southern Ukraine, bolstering Russia’s front-line air defenses. And any amphibious assault on Odesa would want its capabilities, each defensive and offensive (not that I ever thought that might occur).
Ultimately, this was the sensible finish of Russia’s naval engagement within the warfare, with Russia transferring a good portion of its naval belongings out of Sevastopol to extra protected Russian ports removed from the battle.
In the meantime, the general public relations worth was incalculable. Certain, Ukrainians have been bolstered by the information, clearly. However extra importantly, it was the primary time I bear in mind Russians taking a look at one another in utter shock, whether or not on their Telegram channels or state tv. It was the primary time a battlefield setback penetrated their propaganda machine, offering hints that maybe issues weren’t going in addition to the Russian authorities claimed.
9. HIMARS arrives
“No weapons system is a game-changer,” all of us mentioned. Then HIMARS arrived, and … it was a game-changer.
Ukraine’s drawback had been that its longest-range artillery may solely strike, utilizing uncommon and costly guided shells, about 40 kilometers. Most of its weapons topped out at 25 kilometers. That meant Russia may mass its ammunition at prepare depots simply out of vary, behind the entrance traces. We had seen Russia constantly battle to push out past 25 kilometers anyplace on the map, so holding these depots shut at hand was integral to any hopes of Russian advances in addition to energetic defenses.
Enter HIMARS (and M270 MLRS), with its 80-kilometer vary, and every thing modified almost in a single day.
Regardless of a restricted provide of rocket ammunition, Ukraine systematically destroyed key bridges, together with the Antonovsky Bridge in Kherson (lastly!) and the dam bridge at Nova Kakhovka. Russian forces north of the Dnipro in Kherson oblast may now solely be bolstered and resupplied by barge.
Ukraine additionally focused each command and management facilities, decimating not solely Russia’s officer corps, however these key provide depots and railheads. It pressured Russia to maneuver its predominant provide hubs past that 80-kilometer vary, instantly stopping any Russian offensive actions anyplace exterior of the nook of Donbas adjoining to Donetsk metropolis (the place the availability traces are actually single-digit kilometers lengthy).
Finally Russia has adjusted, distributing its ammunition in smaller dumps all through the entrance traces, ending the pyrotechnic joys of HIMARS o’clock. Nonetheless Russia’s logistical challenges continued unabated, resulting in the eventual abandonment of northern Kherson oblast and Kherson metropolis. And to today Ukraine continues to make use of HIMARS to “form the battlefield,” softening up complete corners of the entrance traces in anticipation of Ukraine’s coming winter offensive.
10. Dovhen’ke is liberated
Simply kidding. As a lot as I obsess over Dovhen’ke, its liberation was a facet impact of …
10. Kharkiv oblast is liberated
Do you bear in mind on the primary day of the warfare how some Russian Spetsnaz particular forces unit simply randomly drove into Kharkiv, seemingly bought misplaced, then was eradicated by Ukrainian defenders? Right here they’re coming into the city:
An hour later:
Extra video of the battle here and here. Nicely, that was the final time Russia ever even sniffed the within of Kharkiv metropolis, although it thought it could be straightforward pickings as a result of it was “Russian talking.” Finally, Russia bypassed the town and occupied most of Kharkiv oblast, pushing down into Izyum.
Seems Russia didn’t want Kharkiv to produce its northern method from Berdiansk, in Russia, by way of Vovhansk and Kupiansk. In the meantime, that Izyum salient was the northern pincher which, along with a southern pincher from the Donetsk metropolis space, would encircle Ukrainian defenses within the Donbas.
Russia put every thing into that Izyum salient. When it retreated from Kyiv, the place did the surviving models go? Izyum. But Russia’s advances stalled not removed from the city, just about at 25 kilometers. Its southern push was stymied by the fierce protection of Dovhen’ke, a farming neighborhood with a pre-war inhabitants of 700. Russia wasn’t simply failing at capturing Kharkiv (inhabitants 1.4 million), it couldn’t even deal with a couple of silos and a pig farm.
Ukraine spent the summer season promising an autumn offensive in Kherson. I imply, they actually could not shut up about it. All of us checked out Kherson, seemed on the tenuous provide scenario (two bridges, now coated by HIMARS), and mentioned “duh, it’s a lure. Nobody is so silly as to fall … for … it …” Russia fell for it, speeding tens of hundreds of troops to area, constructing a number of rings of defensive trenches radiating out from Kherson metropolis. Ukraine even bought it, making a number of feints in August. Russian Telegram was in orgasmic bliss, bragging concerning the huge losses supposedly suffered by Ukrainian forces.
But on Sept. 6, Ukraine launched its huge push in what had appeared to be its forgotten entrance—Kharkiv, and the beautiful success of the offensive got here into clearer concentrate on Sept. 7 and, much more so, on Sept. 8. By Sept. 11, hundreds of sq. kilometers, together with Izyum (and Dovhen’ke), had been liberated. By Oct. 1, the town of Lyman was liberated.
Even higher, Russia’s panicked retreat gifted Ukraine tons of of items of armor, artillery, and different tools—a veritable gold mine, and Russia’s biggest lend-lease contribution to the Ukrainian nation.
As of now, one thing like 98% of Kharkiv oblast has been liberated. Ukraine is now targeted on liberating next-door Luhansk oblast.
11. Kherson Metropolis is liberated
I’ve already set the desk for Kherson’s liberation—the HIMARS rockets that degraded Russian ammunition shares, pushed out logistical depots previous the 80-kilometer vary, and rendered the 2 bridges into the oblast inoperable. There was the knowledge subterfuge that conned Russia into flooding the realm with troops, thus leaving Kharkiv ripe for the taking.
After which a brand new common took management of Russia’s warfare effort: Basic Sergey Surovikin. In a shock to most, he used his first announcement on Oct. 18 as he took command to declare that “tough choices” must be made concerning Kherson. On Oct. 22, Russia ordered the evacuation of Kherson metropolis. All the time Ukrainian forces pushed exhausting in opposition to Russian defenses, breaking by way of a number of traces as studies of dwindling Russian artillery abounded. Seems it was exhausting to help Russia’s hungry artillery weapons with barges.
Three weeks later on Nov. 8, Surovikin requested permission to retreat from Kherson, on TV, from Protection Minister Sergey Shoigu, who instantly agreed. It was bizarre showmanship for certain. On the time, Russian troops have been nearly already all gone. It was all made official three days later on Nov. 11 because the final Russian forces melted away within the evening. Kherson metropolis was liberated.
Not like the chaotic Kharkiv retreat abandoning precious weapons and ammunition, the Kherson retreat was orderly, environment friendly, executed quietly, and apparently secret (or Ukraine lacked the means to do something about it), with little tools and ammunition left behind.
But regardless of all of it, Ukraine had retaken the one regional capital misplaced all the warfare and executed so with out firing a single shot within the metropolis. Logistics for the win. And will there have been something extra infuriating for Russia, which had proclaimed that “Kherson is Russia,” than seeing Zelenskyy cheered within the streets with zero worries about his private security?
12. Kerch Bridge broken
OMG sure, these movies have been among the most enjoyable of all the warfare:
Whereas some highway site visitors has resumed, Russia doesn’t count on the roadway to be totally repaired till March. Much more importantly, the rail element supplying all the southern Ukraine a part of the warfare effort was knocked out, and stays knocked out to this very day. I could have missed it, however I have never seen Russia present any date on its restore. To take action would require it to confess that it’s out of fee, which it additionally hasn’t executed.
The extreme harm to the rail part could have contributed to the choice to retreat from Kherson, which already confronted a tough logistical scenario.
The assault additionally struck at certainly one of Putin’s biggest joys: the connection of Russia to occupied Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. Requested not too long ago to justify his assaults on civilian Ukrainian infrastructure, Putin claimed it was justified as a result of Ukraine “began it first” … by hitting the Kerch bridge on Oct. 7.
Nicely, that is my dozen largest moments of the warfare. What are yours?
