The following Ramstein assembly of Ukraine’s allies is January 20. If not earlier than, I’d be stunned if the allies don’t make an announcement there. With American M2 Bradley infantry combating autos on their approach, the taboo in opposition to fashionable heavy armor has been busted, and there’s no rational cause for the allies to carry out on the Leopards.
See additionally Mark’s nice writeup on Ukraine’s want for the tanks right here, one in every of his finest items on the conflict (and given his persistently top quality, that’s saying one thing).
By all indications, the state of affairs in Soledar is troublesome however beneath management. Even Russian sources have backed off claims of damaged Ukrainian traces in the important thing suburb northeast of Bakhmut.
We’ve seen giant industrial amenities function key strongholds all through this whole conflict, from Mariupol, to Severodonetsk, to the commercial zone in Bakhmut. Soledar has its salt mine. Just like the Azovastal metal manufacturing facility in Mariupol, the salt mine has a community of underground amenities (Wagner’s chief referred to as it an “underground metropolis”) that facilitate the storage of armaments, the flexibility of Ukrainian defenders to each barricade themselves, and their potential to transfer round beneath potential Russian occupiers.
Russian sources claimed management of the salt mine in some unspecified time in the future, however later admitted they didn’t have it. These claims usually are not mutually unique. Right here we’ve got video of a Ukrainian tank advancing within the salt mine, suggesting Russian forces did penetrate deep into the ability in some unspecified time in the future:
Bear in mind, Ukraine engages in what’s referred to as “versatile protection.” I described it as such, discussing their protection of Bakhmut:
So Ukraine holds the trash dump, however retreats as Russia rains artillery on the situation. Russia’s Wagner mercenaries push into the dump and declare victory. They have fun on Telegram and TikTok because the Ukrainian facet despairs. Issues are powerful, and tenuous, and Russia is advancing, Bakhmut is at risk! Oh no, even the “wine manufacturing facility” is in Russia’s palms!
In actuality, these Wagnerites on the vanguard at the moment are uncovered, dealing with Ukrainian hid defensive positions, as a wall of Ukrainian artillery hinders each the advance and the flexibility to resupply these troops.
It’s quite a bit more durable to kill Russians of their trenches; finest to allow them to come out, expose themselves, and hit them out within the open. Which means the traces of management ebb and move, just like the tides, making a no-man’s land “grey zone” between every respective facet’s fundamental defensive positions. Right here’s another look on the tactic:
[Ukraine] Holding the primary line of trenches (the ‘journey line’ because it was identified in German terminology) in any respect prices is prevented. This leads ‘to artillery harm and important losses for the defenders.’ As an alternative, ‘Defensive items ought to have the ability to withdraw to order positions, and surveillance ought to be strengthened on assault routes. After which even when somebody [enemy] manages to advance beneath fireplace to a complicated place, there will probably be losses… positions from the flanks should have the ability to reduce off the strategy of serious enemy forces, and the state of affairs may be restored by a counter-attack of the tactical reserve with armoured autos.’
‘It is unnecessary to carry a place till the final whereas the enemy bombards it, and always change folks on this place, as a result of the “Wagnerians” won’t run out, their purpose is to impose an trade on us.’
It helps that Russia has apparently run out of armor, and is relegated to sending out small squads of cannon fodder, in broad daylight, to advance on Ukrainian defensive positions with none artillery or air help. That is what it appears like:
I ponder if Russia appreciates the irony: They started the conflict with a wealth of apparatus, however missing manpower. Now, they’re flush with troopers from their mobilization, however now not have armor or artillery to help them. Ukrainian intelligence claims Russia is about to announce a basic mobilization, which might grant Russia one other 500,000 lives for the wooden chipper.
Conflict legal and Russian nationalist conflict critic Igor Girkin remains unimpressed on the Russian concentrate on Bakhmut and Wagner CEO Yevgeny Prigozhin’s excuses for his or her failure to take town.
Prigozhin spoke in regards to the “community of underground cities” with tanks in Bakhmut
And initially of the assault, presumably, the presence of such mines was unknown? Or did the Basic Workers of the RF Armed Forces particularly select essentially the most fortified of all positions so as to “wipe the nostril” of Basic Erich von Falkenhayn, who didn’t take Verdun in 1916?
Girkin additionally says what I’ve been saying for months—that Bakhmut has no strategic worth anyway.
[T]he seize of the Bakhmut-Soledar agglomeration may be very distant. “Battle of attrition” (mutual) can proceed for multiple month. And even when our troops win a tactical victory in it, then strategically – we’ve got already misplaced, as soon as once more throwing one of the best forces and means “on an unusable object.”
Russia does appear to have completed one factor—forcing Ukraine to strengthen town and its surrounding defensive strongholds. Whereas we could but see a shock counteroffensive this winter, particularly now that it’s lastly chilly sufficient for the bottom to freeze, there are rising indications that Ukraine may choose to attend a couple of months. Not solely will Ukraine have shiny new armor to make use of for any spring offensive, however Russia’s challenges in supplying its artillery weapons with ammunition (“shell starvation”) will solely worsen within the months forward. Why danger Ukrainian lives in under-armored assaults with Leopards (probably) and Bradleys on the way in which? Ukraine may spend this ready time degrading Russian logistics, gear, command and management, and manpower—all of which might make a spring offensive much more more likely to succeed.
Or, maybe Ukraine can use armor it has saved in reserve now, realizing it is going to be backfilled with new Western deliveries within the coming months. And possibly all the brand new chatter a couple of “spring offensive” is misdirection, to maintain Russia guessing. It’s bitterly chilly in these trenches, HIMARS and tube artillery are working, and Russia nonetheless hasn’t fastened its logistics. If Ukraine has the juice, that is pretty much as good a time as any to make a transfer.
Yeah, that is previous information for a lot of of you, however I used to be on trip when it occurred and it’s nonetheless humorous right this moment: Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev (he was Vladimir Putin’s puppet), the present deputy chairman of Russia’s safety council, had some “predictions” for 2023.
1. Oil value will rise to $150 a barrel, and gasoline value will prime $5.000 per 1.000 cubic meters
2. The UK will rejoin the EU
3. The EU will collapse after the UK’s return; Euro will drop out of use as the previous EU foreign money
There’s plenty of 2023 left, clearly, however:
The UK won’t rejoin the European Union as long as the Tories stay in energy, and speak about some want casting on the collapse of the EU.
4. Poland and Hungary will occupy western areas of the previously current Ukraine
5. The Fourth Reich will probably be created, encompassing the territory of Germany and its satellites, i.e., Poland, the Baltic states, Czechia, Slovakia, the Kiev Republic, and different outcasts
LOL, okay.
6. Conflict will get away between France and the Fourth Reich. Europe will probably be divided, Poland repartitioned within the course of
7. Northern Eire will separate from the UK and be part of the Republic of Eire
I assumed Poland was occupying western Ukraine, now they gained’t even exist anymore? This will probably be an action-packed yr!
8. Civil conflict will get away within the US, California. and Texas turning into impartial states in consequence. Texas and Mexico will type an allied state. Elon Musk’ll win the presidential election in a variety of states which, after the brand new Civil Conflict’s finish, may have been given to the GOP
Conservatives in Texas will be part of with … Mexico. I assume that border wall gained’t be needed anymore! Additionally, the brand new Conservative States of America gained’t have a natural-born presidential requirement.
9. All the biggest inventory markets and monetary exercise will depart the US and Europe and transfer to Asia
All of the monetary exercise is leaving the US, y’all. All of it.
10. The Bretton Woods system of financial administration will collapse, resulting in the IMF and World Financial institution crash. Euro and Greenback will cease circulating as the worldwide reserve currencies. Digital fiat currencies will probably be actively used as a substitute
The Bretton Woods system led to August 1971, however who’s counting?
Russia is free to undertake Bitcoin as its foreign money, lol.
As the entire web laughed at Medvedev, one particular person was impressed:
Everybody laughed some extra.
